UAMS study predicts over 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in Arkansas by end of October

The mid-term forecast also predicts COVID-19 cases will continue to rapidly increase by more than 40,000 through the end of October.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark — The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences recently conducted three studies over COVID-19 in Arkansas.

The assessments focused on the short-term forecasts of confirmed cases, deaths, and hospitalizations; the mid-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths; and the impact of COVID-19 among Arkansas counties by race/ethnicity and age.

All assessments were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through September 6. The results exclude cases identified with antigen tests.

The mid-term forecast predicts COVID-19 cases will continue to rapidly increase through the end of October, increasing by more than 40,000 cases.

The SEIR model shows a prediction of more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in Arkansas by October 31.

According to UAMS, the mid-term forecast “are usually fairly reliable and our confidence in them is fairly high.”

To see the full version of UAMS’ forecasts, projections, and impact assessments for COVID-19 as released on September 9, click here.